The $250 billion market hiding in plain sight

By CEO James Rosen, November 3, 2025 — In 2021, AbbVie’s adalimumab (Humira), a biologic used to treat autoimmune diseases, hit a remarkable milestone. After nearly two decades of revenue growth, Humira became the first drug ever to reach $20 billion in a single year.

Pfizer sold $19 billion of the COVID-19 antiviral Paxlovid in 2022 — its first year, followed by another $7 billion in 2023-24.

Pfizer and the handful of other companies that developed effective COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines generated more than $220 billion in revenues in just three years, and the medicines weren’t even available until more than a year after the pandemic exploded. It took more than 20 years for Humira, the top-selling drug of all time, to surpass $200 billion. But very few drugs become blockbusters. A successful drug might reach $2-5 billion in total lifetime revenue, while most reach less than $2 billion.

Despite the stunning Paxlovid example, it’s a common misperception that investing in pandemic antiviral drug R&D is not profitable. Investment in infectious disease therapeutics may not make the Pharma industry’s current Top Five list, alongside oncology and obesity drugs, but for long-term investors, backing pandemic antiviral R&D could be the highest yielding capital allocation they ever make. Given the near statistical certainty that there will be at least one COVID-like or greater event within one’s lifetime, returns are a matter of when, not if. READDI has done the math to provide actionable insight.

A rigorous financial modeling tool READDI developed in partnership with RTI Health Solutions illustrates how developing pandemic antiviral drugs represents an untapped multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity. According to our Return-on-Investment (ROI) calculator, investing in a strategic portfolio of antivirals presents a roughly 1-in-4 chance of returning about 150 times invested capital within 15 years — a 40% annualized return. The investment would also bring about substantial public health and socio-economic benefits. And it would provide an asset likely to rise when the rest of the market is falling, serving as a hedge against catastrophic losses akin to what was experienced when COVID-19 rocked the global economy.

Tackling the not-so-puzzling Disease X problem

Two uncertainties have dogged pandemic antiviral R&D: not knowing which virus will pose the next catastrophic threat and not knowing when the outbreak will occur. This so-called “Disease X” problem is not as puzzling as we’ve been led to believe.

Virologists know with a high degree of certainty that the next significant viral outbreak will emerge from one of eight virus families. And experts predict a 25-30% probability that a pandemic equal to or greater than COVID-19 will emerge within the next 10-15 years. That’s a one-in-four chance.

To mitigate the Disease X problem, READDI is developing a portfolio of “broad-spectrum” small-molecule antiviral therapeutics against all eight virus families of pandemic concern. These broad-spectrum drugs are designed to work against all viruses in a given family, including known threats, such as Ebola (a filovirus) and Dengue (a flavivirus), as well as yet-to-emerge threats. This portfolio approach drastically raises the probability that we will have a drug for Disease X when it strikes. By aggregating the risk and reducing the chance of failure, we increase the probability of a high financial outcome.

The magnitude of the outcome more than compensates for the potentially long time to payout. If a catastrophic viral event were to happen at the near end of the range, the annual rate of return would be astronomical. As time passes, the rate of return declines, but even over several decades, the annualized rate remains above alternative asset-class benchmarks.

We’re not embarking on a far-fetched expedition in search of things that may or may not exist. READDI is tackling this problem with well-established pharmaceutical science and targets we can identify and hit.

But how much is this portfolio worth? For the first time ever, we have a modeling tool that provides answers.

READDI’s ROI calculator runs simulations of various disease-outbreak scenarios and development costs over time and calculates the value of a portfolio of antivirals, as measured by ROI and net present value (NPV). It accounts for development funds coming from both private capital and non-dilutive sources, such as governments and philanthropies. It accounts for regional variations in outbreak risk and drug pricing. In scenario after scenario, the model demonstrates that the average ROI on such a portfolio is extremely high. Not only could the portfolio deliver outsized returns, but it could also save lives and avert trillions of dollars in losses to world economies, financial markets and individual households.

Pinpointing the catalytic tipping point

READDI’s ROI calculator can help quantify the catalytic power of government and philanthropic funding to boost potential ROI for financially motivated investors. The model can inform the optimal capital structure of a public-private R&D initiative that satisfies the funding criteria of each sector’s stakeholders.

For example, consider a scenario in which there are four virus families that have high commercial potential and four that don’t. We can model what happens if non-dilutive funds are used to offset 100% of the development costs of the low-commercial-value virus families and, for the high-commercial-value virus families, development costs through Phase 1. If that creates an ROI calculation that is attractive to a financially minded investor, we can demonstrate to government and philanthropy the power of specific amounts of non-dilutive funding to catalyze portfolio development. Those funders can then engage in partnerships that establish funding for certain milestones and eventual transition to private sector manufacturing and distribution partners.

Leveraging the power of an R&D investment fund

READDI is forming an investment fund to support portfolio development. Our Antiviral R&D Fund will provide committed capital for strategic investments needed to build an antiviral portfolio over the next decade. The fund will contain commercially valuable assets whose present value can be leveraged to generate cash inflows for ongoing work. Options contracts for future rights to manufacture and distribute antivirals in the portfolio can be sold to generate cash to further support R&D. Once the pipeline is sufficiently primed, the entire fund could be securitized, listed and freely traded on a public exchange, converting an illiquid asset into a liquid asset. This means that a viral event isn’t required for financial return.

READDI’s vast global network of antiviral drug developers ensures that we get an early look at the most promising compounds. Our subject matter experts are among the most qualified in the world to conduct efficient due diligence on assets to bring into the portfolio. We have venture capital expertise to manage the fund with support from an outstanding team.

We are well on our way. READDI has executed a global landscaping exercise to identify where and by whom the most promising work is being done, the compounds that have been generated thus far and where the critical gaps are. This knowledge enables us to immediately begin building the pipeline of broad-spectrum drugs across all eight virus families of pandemic potential.

Based on typical biotechnology R&D attrition rates, READDI has calculated the number of target discovery, hit and lead programs necessary to generate two Phase 2-ready compounds per virus family (16 drugs overall). Two drugs per family provides two different mechanisms of action, reducing the likelihood of drug resistance. Our position at the top of the deal-flow funnel will enable READDI to begin putting the fund to work immediately and aggregate the necessary substrate to yield a high-quality portfolio of assets.

We can establish and fill the development pipeline within five years and $200M. The pipeline will ensure sufficient yield to complete the comprehensive portfolio of 16 Phase 2–ready antiviral drugs within 8-to-10 years and approximately $2B. It could be the smartest, highest impact and most financially lucrative $2B ever spent. Institutional investors partnering with government and philanthropy could make it happen. Let’s convince them to do so before the next catastrophic virus emerges.